Slide 1

Tomorrow's Model

How much will CO2 emissions be reduced?

Current CO2 reduction policies involve capping total emissions through a system of tradable allowances. There are both regional and multilateral initiatives:

The EU unilateral plan will reduce emissions by 20% by 2020. However those emissions which are in the ETS will need to reduce by a greater amount (by about 25%). In the accompanying report, this is called the 'Red Scenario'

Current US proposals are for a cap and trade regime that targets peak carbon around 2020 with emissions 60% below 2005 levels by 2050 The IPCC category II proposals also target peak carbon in 2020

The IPCC Category I proposal is to achieve reductions to 25-15% of 1990 levels by 2050. The EU has said it will work towards a 30% reduction by 2020 if multilateral agreements are reached. In the report, this is called the 'Orange Scenario'

The IPCC would like heavy reductions of CO2e. Many Developing countries want Europe and N.America to bear the brunt of CO2 reduction. They propose allowances for developed countries to be reduced to 40% of of 1990 levels by 2020 and 10% by 2050. In the report, this is called the 'Green Scenario'

Which of these scenarios do you think is likely to happen?

 

 % of 1990 CO2 emissions allowed
Red Scenario
EU/ETS 2020:20
US 2020 peak carbon IPCC Category IIOrange Scenario
EU/ETS 2020/30
Green Scenario
EU/ETS 2020/40
201093.00123.6790.00 93.0093.00
201191.38119.9687.75 88.7786.21
201289.79116.3685.56 84.7379.92
201388.23112.8783.42 80.8774.08
201486.69109.4881.33 77.1968.68
201585.19106.2079.30 73.6863.66
201683.70103.0177.32 70.3359.01
201782.2599.9275.38 67.1354.71
201880.8296.9273.50 64.0850.71
201979.4194.0271.66 61.1647.01
202078.0391.1969.87 58.3843.58
202176.6788.4668.12 55.7240.40
202275.3485.8166.42 53.1937.45
202374.0383.2364.76 50.7734.72
202472.7480.7363.14 48.4632.18
202571.4778.3161.56 46.2529.83
202670.2375.9660.02 44.1527.65
202769.0173.6858.52 42.1425.64
202867.8171.4757.06 40.2223.76
202966.6369.3355.63 38.3922.03
203065.4767.2554.24 36.6420.42
203164.3365.2352.89 34.9818.93
203263.2163.2751.56 33.3917.55
203362.1161.3850.27 31.8716.27
203461.0359.5449.02 30.4215.08
203559.9757.7547.79 29.0313.98
203658.9256.0246.60 27.7112.96
203757.9054.3445.43 26.4512.01
203856.8952.7144.30 25.2511.14
203955.9051.1243.19 24.1010.32
204054.9349.5942.11 23.009.57
204153.9748.1041.06 21.968.87
204253.0346.6640.03 20.968.22
204352.1145.2639.03 20.007.62
204451.2043.9038.05 19.097.07
204550.3142.5937.10 18.226.55
204649.4441.3136.18 17.396.07
204748.5840.0735.27 16.605.63
204847.7338.8734.39 15.855.22
204946.9037.7033.53 15.134.84
205046.0836.5732.69 14.444.48
Annual
Reduction
Factor
1.74%3.00%2.50%4.55%7.30%

Sources


Source for IPCC scenarios:

Source for EU/ETS data

Source for US CO2 production: