Slide 1

Decision Workshop on Emerging Markets

As part of our research into the impact of the Euro crisis on emerging markets, a Decision Workshop was held to forecast the possible responses of key players in the emerging markets in the run-up to a ‘botched exit’ by one of the struggling Eurozone economies.

Decision Workshops are designed to examine dilemmas. This workshop was structured around four ‘teams’ of key players representing governments of countries in the emerging markets, with three people in each team. The teams had to make a number of yes/no decisions, playing out from an initial scenario developed in advance.

Subject matter expertise to inform the scenario and workshop was provided by noted futurist Stephen Aguilar-Millan of the European Futures Observatory.

The ‘Botched Exit’ workshop scenario
In this scenario there is an information leak that the new government elected in Italy is willing to return to old profligate practices and has prepared in secret a plan to return to the Lira. It wants to use these plans to gather support from the rest of the PIGS and corner Germany into easing up austerity.

However, plans leak and the reaction of the markets is sharp and unexpectedly severe; and with other bonds about to mature, all hell will break lose if they are not rolled over …

Read more about the workshop here.

The research report
The research report will consider the impact of the financial crisis on emerging markets, including:

  • any evidence to show a migration towards emerging markets in pursuit of investment, growth or career opportunities;
  • what are the evolving meanings of the term ‘emerging markets’;
  • whether those countries classified as emerging markets which have attempted to develop their financial centres are more successful than those that have not in attracting investment.

The workshop fed into the report which is due to be published in 2014 as part of the Special Reports for the Financial Centre Futures programme in Long Finance.